Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:32:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B3
0xb36b…7804
politics · 28 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$7,766 +300%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$381 · open +$441
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,416
Realized+$381
Unrealized+$441
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions27
Markets (closed)37 / 28
History coverage5d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day695.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 27 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$228
7 days+$381
14 days+$381
30 days+$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $324 $486 +$162 (+50%)
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $311 $466 +$155 (+50%)
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $292 $438 +$146 (+50%)
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $284 $426 +$142 (+50%)
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $283 $425 +$142 (+50%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $132 $199 +$66 (+50%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $94 $141 +$47 (+50%)
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $88 $132 +$44 (+50%)
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $246 $123 −$123 (-50%)
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $195 $97 −$97 (-50%)
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $59 $89 +$30 (+50%)
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $152 $76 −$76 (-50%)
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $142 $71 −$71 (-50%)
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $113 $57 −$57 (-50%)
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $96 $48 −$48 (-50%)
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $64 $48 −$16 (-25%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $34 +$24 (+250%)
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $56 $28 −$28 (-50%)
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+100%)
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+250%)
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 51¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 90¢ 27¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-70%)
Will Israel Adesanya be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+200%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 14 $33 −$16 -49%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 14 $4 −$3 -82%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $0 +$30 +17691%
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 14 $17 −$14 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Dimitar Glavchev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Claudia López win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidentia Jun 14 $17 +$3 +18%
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presiden Jun 14 $42 −$17 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Delyan Peevski be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian preside Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Alba Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament ele Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Jun 14 $15 −$8 -49%
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 14 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Assen Vassilev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mauricio Cárdenas win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian preside Jun 14 $35 −$18 -51%
Will Boyko Borissov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season Jun 14 $4 −$4 -87%
Will Daniel Quintero win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 14 $46 −$39 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nikolai Denkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pres Jun 14 $39 −$30 -78%
Will Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +280%
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$13 +123%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $812 −$48 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $404 −$13 -3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$158 +2227%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $5 +$114 +2444%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $3 +$120 +4004%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $6 +$146 +2582%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$140 +3002%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 52% −$5
politics 44% +$855
tech 4% +$66
world 0% +$147
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22m
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23m
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23m
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23m
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24m
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+239.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +274.9% +239.2% 24% 24% +0.2%
≤30d 37 +274.9% +239.2% 24% 24% +0.2%
≤90d 37 +274.9% +239.2% 24% 24% +0.2%
all 37 +274.9% +239.2% 24% 24% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover695.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +239.2% 24% +0.2%
10% ← realistic here +206.7% 22% -9.4%
15% +177.1% 22% -18.1%
20% +149.9% 22% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,415.72 · official $3,415.72 (match) · 3500 history records