Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:13:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B3 0xb36b…6a7b weather 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$2 (+3%) realized +$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip

Net edge+38%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+43.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+58.9%	+43.8%	100%	100%	+43.8%
≤30d	1	+58.9%	+43.8%	100%	100%	+43.8%
≤90d	1	+58.9%	+43.8%	100%	100%	+43.8%
all	1	+58.9%	+43.8%	100%	100%	+43.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+43.8%	100%	+43.8%
10%	+30.0%	100%	+30.0%
15%	+17.4%	100%	+17.4%
20%	+5.9%	100%	+5.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +59% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +59% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$28

Realized+$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23?	Yes	47¢	46¢	$28	$28	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22?	Jun 22	$20	+$12	+59%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23?	BUY Yes	47¢	$29	1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22?	SELL Yes	89¢	$33	1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.	BUY	3¢	$13	18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22?	BUY Yes	54¢	$20	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.70 · official $27.70 (match) · 4 history records