Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb36e…74b3 world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$1
other 27% +$6
politics 13% −$1
sports 5% +$1
economics 5% $0
finance 4% −$4
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 21% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 21% 0% -9.7%
all 42 -1.9% -11.2% 31% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -9.4%
10% -19.7% 2% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 2% -26.0%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage295d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $106 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $11 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $34 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Dec 20 $6 −$4 -56%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $15 +$5 +36%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 09 $2 $0 -13%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 US Open? Sep 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $21 $0 +1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 28 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $4 $0 -3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 28 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $33 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $3 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $31 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $29 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $29 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $37 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $37 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $36 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $36 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $33 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $33 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $37 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $37 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $32 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $4 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $33 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $29 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.30 · official $33.30 (match) · 138 history records