Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B3 0xb36e…538f sports 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$70 (+1%) realized −$4 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%46W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days+$214
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$199
other 17% −$155
crypto 4% +$62
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +16.1% +5.0% 44% 43% -5.2%
≤30d 120 -2.8% -12.0% 38% 37% -9.0%
≤90d 120 -2.8% -12.0% 38% 37% -9.0%
all 120 -2.8% -12.0% 38% 37% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 37% -9.0%
10% -20.4% 36% -17.7%
15% -28.1% 32% -25.7%
20% -35.2% 25% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$43 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses46 / 74
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 123
History coverage12d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 100¢ $150 $224 +$74 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $151 +$49 +32%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 +$33 +65%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $101 +$78 +77%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $101 +$44 +44%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$2 -12%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$2 -9%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$50 +50%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $202 +$72 +36%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$90 +874%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $202 +$101 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 +$54 +210%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$80 +79%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $151 +$66 +43%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$35 +70%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +47%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$71 +70%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $202 +$77 +38%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$65 +129%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$31 +62%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$85 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $151 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $151 15h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 19h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 25h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end BUY 7¢ $10 26h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 26h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Austria end BUY 2¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 27h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 27h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $20 47h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 40¢ $18 47h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 47h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $19 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 47h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $20 47h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $20 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $202 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $151 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $274 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $202 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $303 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $79 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.77 · official $223.77 (match) · 195 history records