Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:40:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B3 0xb373…d97c sports 333 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,728 (+6%) realized +$3,099 · open −$1,371
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%171W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$274est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3,056now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$814
other 16% −$1,524
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -48.9% -53.7% 27% 23% -31.0%
≤30d 291 +1.2% -8.5% 55% 49% -6.4%
≤90d 312 +0.7% -8.9% 55% 50% -6.9%
all 312 +0.7% -8.9% 55% 50% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 50% -6.9%
10% -17.6% 44% -15.8%
15% -25.6% 36% -23.9%
20% -32.9% 29% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$48 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$3,056
Realized+$3,099
Unrealized−$1,371
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses171 / 141
Est. fees paid−$274
Open positions21
Markets (closed)312 / 333
History coverage84d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 39¢ 59¢ $855 $1,302 +$447 (+52%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 71¢ 60¢ $534 $452 −$81 (-15%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 40¢ 41¢ $396 $410 +$14 (+4%)
Will m0NESY have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 90¢ 55¢ $318 $193 −$125 (-39%)
Will sh1ro have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 90¢ 100¢ $90 $100 +$10 (+11%)
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs 100 Thieves 63¢ 100¢ $63 $100 +$37 (+59%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage 9z 68¢ 64¢ $102 $96 −$5 (-5%)
Will ZywOo have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 94¢ 98¢ $86 $89 +$4 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage TYLOO 45¢ 47¢ $64 $67 +$3 (+4%)
Will Sabrina Ionescu have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season? No 97¢ 99¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs MIBR (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage MIBR 51¢ 42¢ $77 $63 −$14 (-18%)
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Virtus.pro 54¢ 51¢ $54 $51 −$3 (-6%)
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Yes 65¢ 69¢ $35 $38 +$2 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 65¢ 69¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Alliance (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Alliance 31¢ 38¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+22%)
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Toronto KOI 12¢ 17¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+37%)
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Sharks 59¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $995 $1 −$993 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Team Nemesis 37¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Vancouver Surge 12¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 57¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Walczaki 71¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $84 −$84 -100%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $254 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $41 +$59 +141%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $9 +$7 +75%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $1 +$1 +117%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 20 $76 +$42 +56%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 20 $72 −$48 -67%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of D Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $15 +$5 +32%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $85 +$146 +172%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $110 +$41 +37%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $17 +$13 +72%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $70 −$20 -29%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $97 −$40 -41%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $50 −$20 -40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $14 −$9 -64%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - Stake R Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $38 +$38 +101%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 18 $40 +$4 +11%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $288 −$205 -71%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division Jun 17 $97 +$89 +92%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $288 +$31 +11%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $323 −$123 -38%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $5 +$5 +86%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $125 +$60 +48%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $128 −$64 -50%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $126 −$76 -60%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $96 +$104 +109%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $67 −$65 -97%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $56 +$19 +34%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $57 +$43 +75%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 16 $132 +$18 +14%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $29 +$78 +263%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $1 +$1 +82%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $779 +$477 +61%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $47 +$53 +113%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $68 +$37 +54%
Will The MongolZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $105 −$14 -13%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $120 +$27 +23%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $61 +$21 +35%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $8 −$3 -34%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 15 $627 +$104 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S BUY Toronto KOI 12¢ $2 3m
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Virtus.pro 54¢ $54 9m
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 40¢ $403 38m
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of D BUY Vancouver Surge 12¢ $103 44m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY INOX Division 66¢ $13 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $202 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $42 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $42 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $60 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $14 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $76 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $58 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $35 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $33 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $165 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $23 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,056.49 · official $3,056.50 (match) · 1787 history records