Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:12:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B3 0xb377…ac14 sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$129 (+12%) realized +$284 · open −$155
Gross ROI / mkt +127% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +75% what you keep after slip
Net edge+75%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$120
other 37% +$63
crypto 5% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+105.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +127.0% +105.4% 56% 56% +5.9%
≤30d 16 +127.0% +105.4% 56% 56% +5.9%
≤90d 16 +127.0% +105.4% 56% 56% +5.9%
all 16 +127.0% +105.4% 56% 56% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +105.4% 56% +5.9%
10% ← realistic here +85.7% 50% -4.2%
15% +67.8% 38% -13.5%
20% +51.3% 38% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +127% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late +210% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$20 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$284
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 26¢ 20¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 30¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $81 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$10 -33%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $305 +$84 +28%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $122 +$52 +43%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 +$17 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $10 +$6 +55%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $30 +$16 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $20 +$43 +211%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $72 −$23 -32%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $15 +$19 +123%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $10 +$8 +81%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $10 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 23¢ $10 22m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 42m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 29¢ $10 58m
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 11¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 22¢ $4 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 21¢ $51 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 31¢ $38 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 33¢ $20 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $20 5h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 67¢ $50 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $29 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 29¢ $20 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $23 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No $10 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $29 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 18h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $200 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $94 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 70¢ $60 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 72¢ $23 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 55¢ $45 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 21¢ $20 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 49¢ $75 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 32¢ $51 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.09 · official $65.10 (match) · 61 history records