Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:14:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb379…1a28 other 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$165 (-11%) realized +$312 · open −$477
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day73.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$490
sports 22% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -32.5% -38.9% 48% 38% -19.3%
≤30d 21 -32.5% -38.9% 48% 38% -19.3%
≤90d 21 -32.5% -38.9% 48% 38% -19.3%
all 21 -32.5% -38.9% 48% 38% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.9% 38% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -44.7% 33% -27.0%
15% -50.1% 19% -34.1%
20% -55.0% 10% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$24 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$312
Unrealized−$477
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day73.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $195 $0 −$194 (-100%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 56¢ 0¢ $168 $0 −$168 (-100%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? No 94¢ 0¢ $116 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $147 +$80 +54%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $132 −$5 -4%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $94 +$34 +36%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $205 −$82 -40%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $15 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $11 +$4 +36%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $8 +$3 +32%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $6 +$2 +28%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $43 −$42 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $21 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $52 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $38 $0 +1%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $7 +$7 +101%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $86 +$22 +25%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $146 +$18 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 23¢ $199 22m
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY No 94¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY No 94¢ $91 2h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY No 94¢ $16 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 56¢ $170 2h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 92¢ $20 3h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 92¢ $5 3h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 92¢ $26 3h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 56¢ $96 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 15¢ $121 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 13¢ $108 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 9h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 73¢ $94 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 46¢ $92 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.63 · official $0.63 (match) · 91 history records