Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:11:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B3 0xb37a…f1b1 world 358 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$17,297 (+7%) realized +$17,308 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate66%224W / 116L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$689per market
Trades / day45.3pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2,370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,771
14 days+$6,748
30 days+$10,241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$6,325
other 28% +$6,706
politics 14% +$2,194
crypto 4% +$139
tech 3% +$1,019
sports 3% +$876
finance 1% −$59
economics 0% −$27
weather 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +7.6% -2.7% 71% 34% -5.8%
≤30d 120 +11.8% +1.2% 64% 24% -4.3%
≤90d 340 +14.1% +3.2% 66% 36% -3.1%
all 340 +14.1% +3.2% 66% 36% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.2% 36% -3.1%
10% -6.7% 22% -12.4%
15% ← realistic here -15.7% 15% -20.9%
20% -24.0% 12% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$580) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$72 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.19 per $1 lost it wins $3.19
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$2,370
Realized+$17,308
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses224 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions18
Markets (closed)340 / 358
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$689
Trades / day45.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 98¢ 99¢ $984 $994 +$10 (+1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 57¢ 81¢ $282 $403 +$121 (+43%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $212 $209 −$3 (-1%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 35¢ $148 $153 +$5 (+3%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? Yes 58¢ 42¢ $175 $127 −$48 (-28%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $106 $105 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $105 $104 −$0 (-0%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes 39¢ 22¢ $100 $58 −$42 (-42%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+7%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 19¢ $42 $32 −$10 (-24%)
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $60 $27 −$33 (-55%)
Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before 2027? Yes 45¢ 53¢ $21 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 61¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+57%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $22 $22 +$1 (+2%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-9%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-92%)
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,000 +$445 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,308 +$1,296 +99%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $288 −$108 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $527 +$60 +11%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $137 +$5 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $331 +$20 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $400 +$15 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $802 +$68 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $348 −$23 -6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $1,084 +$66 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $5,891 +$34 +1%
Will Trump endorse Susan Collins for ME-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Jun 13 $368 +$44 +12%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6,537 +$2,637 +40%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 13 $687 −$37 -5%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $393 −$236 -60%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $101 +$2 +2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $152 +$22 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $35 +$19 +54%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $380 +$88 +23%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $212 +$18 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $169 +$33 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $225 +$30 +13%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $8,839 −$2,225 -25%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 12 $8 −$6 -79%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Jun 12 $24 −$23 -94%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 12 $150 −$141 -94%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $277 +$173 +62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $580 +$33 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $270 +$30 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $2,027 −$195 -10%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1,014 +$85 +8%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $92 −$35 -37%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $26 −$4 -14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,653 +$15 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $23 +$41 +177%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $2,154 −$674 -31%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 11 $2,883 +$27 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $30 +$47 +155%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1,352 +$121 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $1,417 +$42 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $271 +$23 +8%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2,237 +$1,423 +64%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $783 +$4 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1,294 +$1 +0%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $862 +$167 +19%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,874 +$51 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $408 +$38 +9%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $1,113 +$18 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $106 0m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 76¢ $4 31m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 57¢ $277 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 57¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 57¢ $7 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 10h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $57 16h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $239 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $18 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $52 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $39 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 23h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 23h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $54 23h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 23h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $27 23h
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J SELL Yes 62¢ $10 44h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $591 45h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,445 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,941 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $52 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $302 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $305 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $180 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,369.95 · official $2,362.72 (match) · 3500 history records