Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B3 0xb37b…da0c crypto 343 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,318 (+2%) realized +$1,133 · open +$185
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%312W / 12L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,725now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$216
14 days+$421
30 days+$837
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 2% -7.4%
≤30d 187 +2.5% -7.2% 98% 3% -7.5%
≤90d 324 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 3% -8.2%
all 324 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 3% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -8.2%
10% -17.5% 1% -17.0%
15% -25.4% 1% -25.0%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$39 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.31 per $1 lost it wins $3.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$3,725
Realized+$1,133
Unrealized+$185
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses312 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions19
Markets (closed)324 / 343
History coverage84d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 88¢ 97¢ $593 $658 +$65 (+11%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $501 $511 +$10 (+2%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $389 $417 +$28 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $197 $199 +$2 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $197 $199 +$2 (+1%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $195 $197 +$2 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $196 $197 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 94¢ 95¢ $188 $190 +$1 (+1%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 74¢ 92¢ $148 $185 +$37 (+25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $147 $145 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 71¢ 92¢ $99 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 92¢ 94¢ $102 $104 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 80¢ 82¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 92¢ 94¢ $92 $94 +$2 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $94 $92 −$2 (-2%)
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 22? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $83 $85 +$2 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 22? No 94¢ 96¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? No 94¢ 96¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $191 +$9 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $137 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? Jun 22 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $195 +$5 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? Jun 22 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $90 June 15-21? Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $141 +$8 +6%
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 21? Jun 22 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? Jun 22 $187 +$13 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $83 +$8 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $246 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? Jun 21 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 21? Jun 21 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 21 $301 +$25 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 20? Jun 20 $251 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $163 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $95 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 19 $197 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $202 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? Jun 19 $187 +$13 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 15-21? Jun 19 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? Jun 19 $57 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 18? Jun 19 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $234 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $301 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $92 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $277 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $47 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 17 $271 +$20 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $200 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $189 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $27 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $78 6h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $100 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $33 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $14 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 97¢ $3 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 97¢ $36 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 98¢ $39 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 98¢ $10 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 94¢ $95 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $47 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $9 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 98¢ $49 15h
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $97 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $322 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $3 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $8 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $49 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $56 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 98¢ $23 36h
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 22? BUY Yes 98¢ $83 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $6 37h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $55 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 98¢ $58 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $141 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,725.39 · official $3,725.39 (match) · 1007 history records