Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb37b…3345 sports 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$302 (+10%) realized +$409 · open −$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%20W / 59L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$449
7 days+$79
14 days+$79
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$139
other 25% −$155
crypto 1% −$12
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -18.8% -26.5% 25% 25% -6.9%
≤30d 79 -18.8% -26.5% 25% 25% -6.9%
≤90d 79 -18.8% -26.5% 25% 25% -6.9%
all 79 -18.8% -26.5% 25% 25% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 25% -6.9%
10% -33.6% 25% -15.8%
15% -40.0% 22% -23.9%
20% -45.9% 22% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$26 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$409
Unrealized−$107
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses20 / 59
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions6
Markets (closed)79 / 85
History coverage7d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 43¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $57 −$55 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$10 -32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $102 +$87 +85%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $41 −$20 -49%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $103 +$226 +220%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -89%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $31 −$2 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $21 +$58 +283%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $200 +$53 +26%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $121 −$121 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$4 -21%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $102 +$127 +124%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $10 +$6 +63%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$44 +431%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 48m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 49m
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 17¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $21 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $82 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 37¢ $10 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 24¢ $21 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 73¢ $190 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 20¢ $51 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $102 4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $34 4h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 18¢ $21 5h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 16¢ $52 5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 18¢ $21 5h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 7¢ $5 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 20¢ $21 7h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 4¢ $21 7h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $20 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 17h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $328 17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $103 19h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.57 · official $37.59 (match) · 162 history records