Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B3 0xb37f…dd6f crypto 819 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$126 (-1%) realized −$121 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate75%610W / 207L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$161
14 days−$136
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$146
world 12% $0
culture 0% +$1
politics 0% −$3
other 0% −$1
finance 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 81% 40% -18.2%
≤30d 128 +1.2% -8.5% 87% 23% -11.1%
≤90d 382 -2.9% -12.2% 83% 18% -10.6%
all 817 -4.0% -13.1% 75% 24% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 24% -10.6%
10% -21.5% 13% -19.2%
15% -29.0% 7% -27.0%
20% -36.0% 4% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$121
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses610 / 207
Open positions2
Markets (closed)817 / 819
History coverage148d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 817 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 59¢ 14¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-77%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $55 −$28 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $62 −$23 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$6 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.15 · official $1.15 (match) · 2253 history records