Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:18:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B3 0xb37f…fdcf other 891 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 125d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$335 · open −$300
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate73%630W / 228L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$882now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$67
14 days−$412
30 days−$765
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$747
politics 29% +$297
world 12% −$196
tech 7% −$76
finance 3% −$183
crypto 2% +$106
sports 2% +$97
culture 1% +$31
economics 1% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 13% -4.5%
≤30d 96 -10.4% -18.9% 76% 27% -24.6%
≤90d 577 +11.4% +0.8% 72% 54% -7.3%
all 858 +15.6% +4.6% 73% 52% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.6% 52% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -5.4% 40% -14.8%
15% -14.6% 29% -23.0%
20% -22.9% 21% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$24 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$882
Realized+$335
Unrealized−$300
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses630 / 228
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions34
Markets (closed)858 / 891
History coverage125d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 858 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? No 80¢ 99¢ $97 $121 +$24 (+25%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 34¢ 36¢ $103 $108 +$5 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 91¢ 99¢ $91 $99 +$7 (+8%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 52¢ 44¢ $107 $90 −$17 (-16%)
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June? No 69¢ 90¢ $42 $54 +$12 (+30%)
Will "Different" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 29? Yes 87¢ 85¢ $44 $42 −$1 (-2%)
Will "Left" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 29? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-2%)
Another RFK Jr animal rescue by June 30? No 97¢ 95¢ $41 $41 −$1 (-2%)
Will Trump say "Gulf of Trump" in June? No 91¢ 90¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump post "Knicks" on Truth Social this week? No 91¢ 90¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No 4¢ 12¢ $8 $26 +$19 (+234%)
Will Trump post "Soccer" on Truth Social this week? No 92¢ 88¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? No 95¢ 96¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-41%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-51%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Yes 25¢ 6¢ $54 $14 −$40 (-74%)
Will Trump say "Four More Years" in June? No 91¢ 89¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump say "Dell" this week? No 95¢ 86¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? No 63¢ 52¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-41%)
Will Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week? No 87¢ 57¢ $17 $12 −$6 (-34%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 68¢ 16¢ $40 $10 −$30 (-76%)
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-66%)
Will Trump post "Israel" on Truth Social this week? No 56¢ 55¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 27 $83 −$93 -112%
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $111 +$6 +5%
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 23 $49 +$1 +2%
Will "Understand" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 23 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Elon post "Never" on X this week? Jun 22 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Trump post "Mexico" on Truth Social this week? Jun 22 $7 $0 +5%
Will Trump post "Wall Street" on Truth Social this week? Jun 22 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Trump post "Knicks" on Truth Social this week? Jun 22 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Elon post "Trump" on X this week? Jun 22 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Trump post "Scam" on Truth Social this week? Jun 22 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Elon post "Football" on X this week? Jun 22 $18 +$2 +12%
Will "Reform" be in the headlines this week? Jun 22 $26 +$1 +5%
Will "Samsung" be in the headlines this week? Jun 22 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Elon post "ChatGPT" on X this week? Jun 22 $37 +$3 +10%
Will Elon post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on X this week? Jun 22 $13 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "FIFA" this week? Jun 22 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Trump say "Memory" this week? Jun 17 $13 +$17 +123%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 16 $227 −$227 -100%
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 15 $161 −$161 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Trump post "Ted" or "Cruz" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Trump post "CIA" or "C.I.A." on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Trump post "NATO" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $30 +$7 +24%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 15 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $27 +$3 +10%
Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Trump post "Spencer" or "Pratt" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $75 −$24 -32%
Will Trump post "Cuba" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $41 +$8 +20%
Will Trump post "Wall Street" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $33 +$8 +23%
Will Trump post "Sleepy Joe Biden" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $33 +$7 +21%
Will Trump post "Football" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Trump post "Soccer" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +41%
Will Trump post "The Pope" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $26 +$4 +14%
Will anyone say "Ninja" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $43 +$4 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 14 $70 +$24 +34%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $86 +$14 +16%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $86 +$5 +5%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 11 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Trump say "Star" this week? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Trump say "Warrior" this week? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 09 $75 +$15 +20%
Will "Imagine" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the we Jun 09 $45 +$4 +9%
Will "Love" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 09 $55 +$5 +10%
Will "System" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the wee Jun 09 $56 +$8 +14%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T? Jun 08 $46 +$4 +10%
Will anyone say "Jerry" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? Jun 08 $23 −$20 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $5 12m
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 42m
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 42m
Will Trump say "Dell" this week? BUY No 95¢ $14 1h
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? BUY No 95¢ $15 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $5 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $5 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say "Gulf of Trump" in June? BUY No 91¢ $37 1h
Will Trump say "Four More Years" in June? BUY No 91¢ $14 1h
Will Trump say "Gay" in June? BUY No 83¢ $4 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 2h
Will Trump post "Knicks" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 91¢ $31 2h
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 63¢ $15 2h
Will Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 90¢ $14 2h
Will Trump post "Soccer" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 92¢ $21 2h
Will Trump post "Israel" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 56¢ $6 2h
Will "Different" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the BUY Yes 87¢ $44 3h
Will "Left" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week BUY Yes 86¢ $43 3h
Another RFK Jr animal rescue by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 34h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 38¢ $2 2d
Will Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 79¢ $4 2d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $33 4d
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week BUY Yes 98¢ $26 4d
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week BUY Yes 97¢ $22 4d
Will "Understand" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the BUY Yes 96¢ $32 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 91¢ $91 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 53¢ $53 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 52¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $882.35 · official $875.46 (match) · 3500 history records