Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:27:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B3 0xb382…bae6 crypto 255 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+0%) realized +$45 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%242W / 10L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$51
other 20% −$7
economics 7% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 19 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 55 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 252 +0.3% -9.3% 96% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.38 per $1 lost it wins $5.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses242 / 10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)252 / 255
History coverage242d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 20? No 100¢ 99¢ $56 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 20? No 100¢ 98¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 18? Jun 18 $186 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 14? Jun 14 $189 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on June 9? Jun 09 $174 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 9? Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $189 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 3? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $188 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 30? May 30 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? May 28 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 24? May 24 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 22? May 22 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 19? May 19 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? May 15 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 14? May 14 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 8? May 08 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 07 $170 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 02 $186 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? Apr 25 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $86 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 20? Apr 21 $186 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 13-19? Apr 20 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 15? Apr 16 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 13? Apr 15 $185 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 April 6-12? Apr 13 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? Apr 10 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $184 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 2? Apr 05 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 1? Apr 01 $184 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 30? Mar 31 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 29? Mar 29 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 28? Mar 28 $183 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 28? Mar 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 26? Mar 26 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 25? Mar 25 $182 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $98 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $176 4d
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $189 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $46 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $50 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $50 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $44 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $190 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $154 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $15 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $19 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $189 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $189 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $177 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $11 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $188 16d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $172 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $172 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $171 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $171 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $41 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $130 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $171 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $171 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $171 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $71 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.05 · official $190.05 (match) · 574 history records