Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:42:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb387…4a00 crypto 562 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$884 (-11%) realized −$871 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%203W / 358L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$50
14 days−$254
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$667
other 5% −$112
sports 3% −$68
weather 2% −$129
finance 1% +$67
politics 1% −$102
world 1% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -16.3% -24.3% 40% 38% -14.1%
≤30d 86 -35.1% -41.3% 31% 29% -24.5%
≤90d 369 -59.6% -63.4% 19% 15% -49.2%
all 561 -13.7% -21.9% 36% 33% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 33% -21.5%
10% -29.4% 31% -29.0%
15% -36.2% 28% -35.8%
20% -42.4% 25% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$871
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses203 / 358
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)561 / 562
History coverage130d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 561 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Up 45¢ 12¢ $18 $5 −$13 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET Jun 24 $17 +$14 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$16 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $23 −$12 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET Jun 24 $34 +$18 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $34 −$16 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$8 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$4 -9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $44 −$7 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $57 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$7 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$13 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$25 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$11 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$12 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$10 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$16 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $34 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $23 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $22 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $13 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $14 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 1730 history records