Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B3 0xb387…6ead crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$43 (-3%) realized −$44 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate63%12W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$64per market

Trades / day71.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)-22.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-14.4%	-22.5%	63%	53%	-24.8%
≤30d	19	-14.4%	-22.5%	63%	53%	-24.8%
≤90d	19	-14.4%	-22.5%	63%	53%	-24.8%
all	19	-14.4%	-22.5%	63%	53%	-24.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover71.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-22.5%	53%	-24.8%
10% ← realistic here	-29.9%	37%	-32.0%
15%	-36.7%	21%	-38.6%
20%	-42.9%	11%	-44.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 39% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -30% → late -0% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$38 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.37 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized−$44

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)63%

Wins / losses12 / 7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$64

Trades / day71.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	46¢	78¢	$1	$2	+$1 (+68%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Jun 21	$14	−$13	-93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Jun 21	$11	+$4	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 21	$8	+$4	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Jun 21	$8	+$4	+53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 21	$77	−$77	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$12	+45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 21	$30	+$6	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 21	$25	+$9	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 21	$62	+$16	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Jun 21	$206	−$76	-37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Jun 21	$205	+$1	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 21	$109	+$12	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Jun 21	$57	−$5	-9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Jun 21	$155	−$19	-12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Jun 21	$53	−$22	-43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Jun 21	$51	+$5	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Jun 21	$31	+$4	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Jun 21	$97	+$22	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Jun 21	$53	−$53	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$1	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	SELL Up	4¢	$1	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$14	7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	SELL Down	97¢	$15	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$1	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$10	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$8	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	SELL Up	95¢	$7	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$5	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	SELL Up	76¢	$5	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$3	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$26	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$26	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$26	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	SELL Up	93¢	$37	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$26	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	SELL Up	26¢	$9	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	SELL Up	37¢	$42	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	SELL Up	62¢	$121	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	SELL Down	76¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$102	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.68 · official $1.47 (match) · 79 history records