Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B3 0xb388…134b crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,290 (+16%) realized +$2,181 · open −$891
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,646
7 days+$1,698
14 days+$1,725
30 days+$1,518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$516
world 6% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +23.9% +12.1% 50% 45% +17.0%
≤30d 25 +18.4% +7.1% 52% 48% +10.6%
≤90d 25 +18.4% +7.1% 52% 48% +10.6%
all 25 +18.4% +7.1% 52% 48% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 48% +10.6%
10% -3.1% 36% +0.0%
15% -12.5% 36% -9.6%
20% -21.1% 24% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$316 vs −$216 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$409
Realized+$2,181
Unrealized−$891
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage20d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $1,000 $302 −$698 (-70%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $300 $107 −$193 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $211 +$85 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $215 −$20 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $214 −$71 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $424 +$1,651 +389%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 16 $212 −$212 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 16 $585 +$77 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 16 $214 −$214 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $215 −$215 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 16 $311 +$146 +47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 16 $105 +$76 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 16 $107 −$28 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 16 $107 +$56 +53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $107 +$39 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $214 +$861 +402%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $107 −$107 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $320 +$730 +228%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 12 $289 −$289 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $208 +$217 +104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $505 +$36 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $996 −$996 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $208 +$27 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $318 −$318 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $500 +$111 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 45¢ $296 4m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $211 9m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $107 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 4¢ $214 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,070 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL No 2¢ $195 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 3¢ $144 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $215 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 86¢ $1,046 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 13¢ $107 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $107 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $107 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 85¢ $457 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 56¢ $182 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 21¢ $165 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 4¢ $80 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 17¢ $163 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $146 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 22¢ $106 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,030 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 24¢ $1,076 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $107 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 43¢ $1,050 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 9¢ $21 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 30¢ $105 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $105 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $107 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $107 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $107 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $107 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.79 · official $408.79 (match) · 70 history records