Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb38a…3293 crypto 205 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37,086 (-13%) realized −$36,987 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%86W / 118L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,372per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,174
7 days+$1,181
14 days+$1,181
30 days+$1,181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$2,365
sports 19% −$35,269
other 7% −$683
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -17.6% -25.4% 40% 40% +22.9%
≤30d 30 -17.6% -25.4% 40% 40% +22.9%
≤90d 31 -20.2% -27.8% 39% 39% -50.8%
all 204 -6.2% -15.2% 42% 40% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 40% -21.9%
10% -23.3% 38% -29.4%
15% -30.7% 35% -36.2%
20% -37.5% 32% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,000) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,033 vs −$1,077 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$36,987
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses86 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions1
Markets (closed)204 / 205
History coverage118d
Avg bet$1,372
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Paraguay 7¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 29 $1,526 +$1,374 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 29 $523 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 29 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$4 +18%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $51 +$282 +550%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $62 +$27 +44%
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$18 +61%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $306 +$587 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$1 +11%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $4,992 −$4,935 -99%
Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Jakub Mensik Mar 23 $18,973 −$18,973 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 23 $200 +$391 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 23 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Nets vs. Kings Mar 23 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $9,966 +$9,100 +91%
Magic vs. Timberwolves Mar 07 $9,996 −$9,996 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 07 $4,998 −$4,922 -98%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $8,469 −$8,469 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 07 $500 +$919 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 07 $7,306 +$2,743 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 07 $2,000 −$1,970 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 07 $500 −$493 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 07 $1,000 +$554 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 07 $5,000 −$4,941 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 07 $500 −$495 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 07 $500 +$1,306 +261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 07 $4,000 −$648 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 07 $5,000 −$4,934 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 7¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $516 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $518 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $523 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $51 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 8¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.73 · official $0.73 (match) · 483 history records