Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb38d…83d6 other 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$425 (+0%) realized +$417 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate66%96W / 49L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$987per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$228
14 days−$83
30 days−$1,410
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$839
sports 12% +$1,227
finance 1% −$56
tech 1% +$13
crypto 0% +$2
weather 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -6.5% -15.4% 60% 40% -2.6%
≤30d 64 -4.8% -13.9% 55% 27% -12.0%
≤90d 145 +4.0% -5.9% 66% 22% -9.3%
all 145 +4.0% -5.9% 66% 22% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 22% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 16% -18.0%
15% -23.2% 13% -25.9%
20% -30.7% 12% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$1,580) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$118 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$700
Realized+$417
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses96 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 147
History coverage77d
Avg bet$987
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $692 $700 +$8 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $686 +$14 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $542 +$59 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $592 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -52%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $67 $0 -0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $535 +$162 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $496 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $45 −$4 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $335 −$143 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $623 +$67 +11%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $844 −$230 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,052 −$234 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $985 +$15 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $1,787 −$618 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $524 −$346 -66%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? May 31 $8 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 31? May 31 $7 −$1 -20%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 31 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 31 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 31 $6 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 31 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 31 $5 +$5 +101%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $22 +$28 +129%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $3,292 +$886 +27%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $1,042 +$34 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1,547 −$42 -3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $4,915 −$478 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $554 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,546 −$310 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $5,262 −$1,041 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $55 +$40 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $1,283 +$20 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $3,925 +$376 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? May 24 $6 −$1 -14%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $93 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $9 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $81 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $86 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $494 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $5 6h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $67 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $67 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 8h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 8h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 9h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $175 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $47 9h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $686 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $599 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $110 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $76 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $94 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $214 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $23 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $27 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $177 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $11 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $699.65 · official $704.65 (match) · 1585 history records