Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:43:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb38e…272b weather 291 markets active 0h ago coverage 583d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,126 (-40%) realized −$3,121 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%31W / 250L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$7
14 days−$94
30 days−$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$1,654
other 15% −$508
politics 9% −$145
economics 9% −$510
weather 7% −$134
crypto 2% −$85
culture 1% +$10
finance 1% −$62
sports 0% −$34
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-57.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +18.8% +7.5% 14% 14% -76.6%
≤30d 76 -56.9% -61.0% 8% 8% -78.4%
≤90d 119 -64.7% -68.0% 7% 7% -49.2%
all 281 -52.9% -57.4% 11% 11% -46.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.4% 11% -46.6%
10% -61.5% 9% -51.7%
15% -65.2% 7% -56.4%
20% -68.6% 6% -60.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$19 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

583d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$3,121
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses31 / 250
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)281 / 291
History coverage583d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+139%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-53%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on June 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$81 +1288%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -58%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$10 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 −$17 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $9 −$6 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $13 −$3 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or below on June 6? Jun 07 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $17 +$14 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $13 −$13 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 5? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$16 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $11 −$10 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$3 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.36 · official $21.38 (match) · 1975 history records