Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:00:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B3 0xb38f…23dd crypto 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$206 (+6%) realized +$207 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%61W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$730
7 days−$662
14 days−$664
30 days−$664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$584
other 8% −$80
sports 4% −$46
world 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +14.2% +3.4% 56% 53% -28.1%
≤30d 99 +12.5% +1.8% 56% 53% -27.9%
≤90d 99 +12.5% +1.8% 56% 53% -27.9%
all 125 +2.4% -7.3% 49% 46% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 46% -29.2%
10% -16.2% 40% -36.0%
15% -24.3% 38% -42.2%
20% -31.7% 34% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$28 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$207
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses61 / 64
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)125 / 128
History coverage123d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $26 $23 −$3 (-11%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 100¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$16 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $162 −$160 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $260 −$260 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$15 +140%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $258 +$185 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $62 +$43 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$14 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $55 +$123 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$40 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 38m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $27 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.10 · official $69.87 (match) · 357 history records