Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:08:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B3 0xb391…3b18 other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,235 (+6%) realized +$1,247 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%50W / 40L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$708now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days+$31
14 days+$11
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 60% +$1,179
sports 11% +$381
politics 9% +$306
tech 8% −$232
other 8% −$335
crypto 2% +$77
finance 1% −$147
world 1% −$3
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +21.2% +9.7% 67% 56% -6.9%
≤30d 22 +8.2% -2.1% 55% 45% -9.1%
≤90d 26 +1.2% -8.5% 54% 46% -8.9%
all 90 -3.5% -12.7% 56% 47% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 47% -3.6%
10% -21.1% 32% -12.9%
15% -28.7% 18% -21.3%
20% -35.7% 11% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$62 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$708
Realized+$1,247
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses50 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions25
Markets (closed)90 / 115
History coverage595d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 58¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 69¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+78%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 30¢ 25¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+58%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $252 +$120 +48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$19 +182%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$35 +114%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $151 +$51 +34%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 +$6 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 −$63 -78%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $80 −$80 -99%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 13 $150 +$15 +10%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +157%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $20 −$12 -59%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $10 −$3 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$6 -58%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? May 23 $10 −$5 -54%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 17 $50 +$13 +26%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 15 $22 −$21 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 01 $100 +$22 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 19 $30 +$11 +35%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Mar 19 $30 −$21 -72%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Mar 19 $54 −$25 -46%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 09 $82 +$16 +20%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 11 $8 +$5 +58%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $30 +$9 +30%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $1,528 −$844 -55%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Dec 03 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 03 $110 −$101 -92%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 25 $128 −$99 -78%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $248 +$61 +24%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Nov 04 $20 +$11 +56%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $1,021 +$146 +14%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 14 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 04 $20 +$108 +538%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Sep 23 $50 −$17 -34%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $2,501 +$1,119 +45%
Rangers vs. Astros Sep 17 $10 +$3 +33%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 16 $800 −$72 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $90 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $16 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $27 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $29 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 79¢ $16 2d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $202 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $708.34 · official $708.35 (match) · 538 history records