Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:09:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb395…3a1f other 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$109 (-1%) realized −$107 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate23%25W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$66
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$36
tech 17% −$6
politics 16% −$21
other 13% −$46
sports 7% +$7
economics 7% −$9
crypto 3% −$12
culture 1% −$20
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -17.6% -25.4% 0% 0% -16.1%
≤30d 59 -17.1% -25.0% 10% 2% -14.4%
≤90d 92 -10.4% -18.9% 15% 2% -11.0%
all 111 -9.7% -18.3% 23% 4% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 4% -11.0%
10% -26.1% 4% -19.5%
15% -33.2% 3% -27.3%
20% -39.8% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$373
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses25 / 86
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)111 / 117
History coverage151d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $212 $218 +$7 (+3%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $135 $133 −$2 (-2%)
Trump on $250 bill this year? Yes $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Canada vs Qa Jun 18 $4 −$1 -34%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl Jun 18 $6 −$2 -33%
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 18 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 12 $15 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $13 −$2 -12%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 06 $7 −$3 -43%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $7 −$3 -39%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 06 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $29 −$8 -27%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 06 $19 −$3 -15%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $28 −$11 -38%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $16 −$1 -6%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $20 −$10 -51%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $114 −$3 -3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Jun 03 $8 −$1 -15%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 03 $18 −$1 -7%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 03 $17 −$2 -13%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 03 $130 −$3 -2%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by between 10 Jun 03 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 03 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $52 −$3 -7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 03 $31 −$2 -7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 03 $91 +$2 +3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 31 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? May 31 $18 −$2 -10%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $26 −$5 -18%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $15 $0 -3%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d May 30 $14 −$4 -27%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? May 30 $4 $0 -4%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c May 30 $10 $0 -2%
Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 -0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? May 30 $13 $0 -4%
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Ma May 30 $7 $0 -6%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? May 30 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? May 30 $6 −$1 -18%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May? May 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 26 $42 −$4 -9%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? May 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 26 $2 $0 -2%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May? May 26 $86 −$8 -9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 25 $176 −$6 -3%
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? May 25 $98 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $138 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $215 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Canada vs Qa SELL No 13¢ $3 14h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Canada vs Qa BUY No 19¢ $4 14h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl SELL No 20¢ $4 14h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl BUY No 29¢ $6 14h
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? SELL Yes 93¢ $18 14h
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 14h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL No 30¢ $6 14h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY No 35¢ $7 14h
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? SELL Yes 93¢ $19 14h
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 14h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY $2 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06- BUY $3 2d
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL Yes 73¢ $14 6d
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No $3 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No $14 11d
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? BUY Yes $10 11d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $11 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $4 12d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes $4 12d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No $2 12d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL Yes $8 12d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 12d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $16 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL Yes $17 12d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $15 13d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY Yes $10 14d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $19 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.99 · official $372.99 (match) · 370 history records