Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb397…538e crypto 948 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 163d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$329 (-1%) realized −$329 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%477W / 469L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$215
7 days+$215
14 days+$204
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$831
other 1% −$177
sports 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +18.4% +7.1% 50% 50% +24.9%
≤30d 73 -7.0% -15.8% 45% 44% -0.2%
≤90d 219 -2.6% -11.9% 68% 28% -10.6%
all 946 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 39% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 39% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 32% -17.3%
15% -26.7% 23% -25.3%
20% -33.9% 18% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$22 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$329
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses477 / 469
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)946 / 948
History coverage163d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 946 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET Jun 27 $135 +$125 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET Jun 27 $142 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET Jun 27 $134 +$37 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET Jun 27 $48 +$86 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$6 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET Jun 26 $47 −$25 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET Jun 26 $28 −$12 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$10 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$27 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$19 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$12 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$19 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$9 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$11 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$6 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$12 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $62 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 +$13 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $21 −$16 -80%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $20 −$16 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 05 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 05 $7 +$12 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$3 +87%
Will Moldova vs. Bulgaria end in a draw? Jun 05 $7 −$3 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY 51¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $261 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $81 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $171 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $134 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $134 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $48 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $2 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $8 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $8 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $15 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $18 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $18 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $15 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $12 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $12 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 34¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $18 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $98.55 · 3500 history records