Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:58:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb39b…289d sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$51 (-10%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$9
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -25.5% -32.6% 38% 38% -11.8%
≤30d 19 -27.8% -34.7% 37% 37% -21.1%
≤90d 19 -27.8% -34.7% 37% 37% -21.1%
all 19 -27.8% -34.7% 37% 37% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 37% -21.1%
10% -40.9% 37% -28.7%
15% -46.6% 37% -35.6%
20% -51.9% 37% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage8d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 60¢ 60¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Minnesota Twins 39¢ 38¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $49 +$34 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $25 +$16 +65%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $36 +$21 +60%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $18 −$1 -7%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $43 +$34 +79%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $18 +$18 +97%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $11 +$14 +129%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $30 +$24 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $36 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $13 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 47¢ $6 25h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $21 28h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $31 29h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $49 29h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $7 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 60¢ $25 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $36 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $16 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $9 4d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 43¢ $15 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $11 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $12 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $11 6d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $16 6d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $43 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $6 6d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $11 7d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $18 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $30 8d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ $15 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $18 8d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 53¢ $57 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.51 · official $48.51 (match) · 42 history records