Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:14:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb39c…0a8c crypto 961 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$172 (-4%) realized −$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%396W / 565L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$332
7 days−$309
14 days−$315
30 days−$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$386
other 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 -66.0% -69.2% 11% 8% -38.2%
≤30d 485 -15.8% -23.8% 36% 32% -19.4%
≤90d 958 -13.4% -21.6% 41% 33% -19.1%
all 961 -13.0% -21.3% 41% 34% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 34% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 27% -26.3%
15% -35.7% 22% -33.4%
20% -42.0% 16% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses396 / 565
Open positions0
Markets (closed)961 / 961
History coverage94d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 961 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$20 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $107 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$44 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +56%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3079 history records