Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb39e…8c14 other 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$13 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%39W / 57L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$11
14 days+$1
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$2
world 35% −$31
politics 5% +$9
tech 3% +$13
finance 3% −$4
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.6% -8.0% 57% 14% -8.4%
≤30d 29 -1.7% -11.0% 28% 3% -10.2%
≤90d 40 +49.1% +34.9% 28% 8% -9.8%
all 96 +22.3% +10.7% 41% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.7% 5% -9.7%
10% +0.1% 3% -18.4%
15% -9.6% 3% -26.3%
20% -18.5% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses39 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage484d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $102 −$3 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $121 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $135 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $341 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $103 +$17 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $108 −$6 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $17 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $107 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $107 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $108 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $108 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $125 −$10 -8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $128 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $262 −$19 -7%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $170 −$2 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $8 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $249 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $226 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $238 +$2 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $130 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $1,053 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $5 $0 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $245 −$4 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $218 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $28 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $41 −$11 -27%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $771 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $29 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $260 +$13 +5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $141 +$1 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $1,028 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $935 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $41 −$5 -11%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $1,033 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +5%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 25 $3 $0 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will 'Senshi' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 20 May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 17 $9 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $118 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $99 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $121 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $121 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $17 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $103 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $120 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $120 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $118 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 69¢ $44 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 69¢ $76 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $93 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $113 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $113 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $99 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $108 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $17 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $17 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $107 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $107 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $107 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $107 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.37 · official $116.90 (match) · 353 history records