Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:03:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3a1…3529 sports 195 markets active 4h ago coverage 100d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$32,379 (+5%) realized +$32,379 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%117W / 191L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,353per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$2,642est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 100d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$127,172
other 14% −$6,907
crypto 2% −$653
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -82.9% -84.5% 14% 12% -63.6%
≤30d 190 -59.4% -63.3% 28% 26% -51.5%
≤90d 271 -40.9% -46.5% 39% 34% -45.1%
all 308 -40.2% -45.9% 38% 33% -49.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.9% 33% -49.5%
10% -51.1% 26% -54.3%
15% ← realistic here -55.8% 18% -58.7%
20% -60.1% 10% -62.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$2,994) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,058 vs −$2,924 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32,379
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses117 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$2,642
Open positions0
Markets (closed)308 / 195
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$3,353
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 308 Trades
no open positions (174 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Warriors (-8.5) Jun 17 $700 −$700 -100%
UFC 324: Perez vs. Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 17 $980 −$980 -100%
Will Real Sporting de Gijón vs. CD Leganés end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,061 −$1,061 -100%
Will SSC Bari vs. Spezia Calcio end in a draw? Jun 17 $526 −$526 -100%
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. UNC Asheville Bulldogs Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks vs. North Carolina Central Eagles: O/U 13 Jun 17 $1,964 −$1,964 -100%
Will U-Haul (UHAL.B) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" during the 2026 State of the Union Jun 17 $127 −$127 -100%
Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5 Jun 17 $496 −$496 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 17 $16,329 −$16,329 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 50+ times during the 2026 State Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union a Jun 17 $731 −$731 -100%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ENCE Academy (BO3) - JB Pro League Season 2 Jun 17 $694 −$694 -100%
Suns vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5 Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia Jun 17 $287 −$287 -100%
Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 233.5 Jun 17 $992 −$992 -100%
Will Estonia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 17 $859 −$854 -99%
Max Christie: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 17 $220 −$220 -100%
Will CA Lanús vs. CA Talleres end in a draw? Jun 17 $15,102 −$15,102 -100%
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "Miracle" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Jun 17 $968 −$968 -100%
Pistons vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5 Jun 17 $4,990 −$4,990 -100%
Will FC Südtirol vs. AC Monza end in a draw? Jun 17 $319 −$319 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest: Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-03-01? Jun 17 $7,307 −$7,307 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs WHITEBIRD (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Pla Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders vs. Southeastern Louisiana Lions Jun 17 $115 −$115 -100%
Liberty Flames vs. Florida International Golden Panthers Jun 17 $2,915 −$2,915 -100%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Coritiba FBC end in a draw? Jun 17 $458 −$458 -100%
Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 Stat Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color? Jun 17 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Pla Jun 17 $3,925 −$3,925 -100%
Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5 Jun 17 $227 −$227 -100%
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Jun 17 $9,984 −$9,984 -100%
Game Handicap: TSW (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Jun 17 $3,655 −$3,655 -100%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Griekspoor (+1.5) Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference? Jun 17 $290 −$295 -102%
Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? Jun 17 $589 −$589 -100%
Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs. McNeese State Cowboys Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
USC Upstate Spartans vs. Winthrop Eagles Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 30? Jun 17 $604 −$604 -100%
Suns vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5 Jun 17 $4,915 −$4,915 -100%
Chiefs vs. Titans: O/U 37.5 Jun 17 $2,994 −$2,994 -100%
UFC 324: Figueiredo vs. Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 17 $3,345 −$3,345 -100%
Men's Group B - Slovakia vs. Finland Jun 17 $2,837 −$2,837 -100%
Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5 Jun 17 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23,829 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,978 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12,189 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $220 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $13 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4,039 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $3,436 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $69 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $12 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1,014 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $129 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $12 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $64 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20,651 5h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $15,642 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14,038 5h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 73¢ $28 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $6,537 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $5,991 6h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 73¢ $28 6h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 73¢ $59 6h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 73¢ $73 6h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 73¢ $29 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records