Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:54:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B3 0xb3a5…cd84 sports 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,995 (-7%) realized −$3,747 · open −$248
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%98W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$876est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$772now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$997
7 days−$1,874
14 days−$2,625
30 days−$3,022
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$5,231
other 6% +$577
world 1% +$207
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -10.9% -19.4% 44% 44% -17.2%
≤30d 210 -8.1% -16.9% 43% 43% -14.9%
≤90d 231 -10.8% -19.3% 42% 42% -16.4%
all 231 -10.8% -19.3% 42% 42% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 42% -16.4%
10% -27.0% 42% -24.4%
15% -34.1% 42% -31.7%
20% -40.5% 41% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$250 vs −$216 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$772
Realized−$3,747
Unrealized−$248
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses98 / 133
Est. fees paid−$876
Open positions4
Markets (closed)231 / 236
History coverage35d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 52¢ $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Cameron Norrie 46¢ 56¢ $200 $241 +$41 (+21%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 34¢ $220 $223 +$3 (+2%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 26¢ 0¢ $300 $1 −$299 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $203 +$231 +114%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $203 +$168 +83%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $406 +$207 +51%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 +$251 +123%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $203 +$152 +75%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $199 +$328 +165%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $204 −$201 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $199 −$196 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $203 +$251 +123%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $170 −$168 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $197 +$176 +89%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $173 −$170 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$167 +82%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $198 −$195 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $204 +$197 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$201 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $136 −$133 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $202 +$136 +67%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $196 −$194 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $301 +$404 +134%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $96 −$94 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $225 −$220 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $232 −$227 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $365 −$360 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $203 +$262 +129%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $203 +$161 +79%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $173 +$252 +146%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $203 +$222 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $195 +$185 +95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $224 −$220 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $127 +$104 +82%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $216 −$213 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $304 +$145 +48%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $203 −$198 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $304 −$121 -40%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $306 −$300 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $264 +$241 +91%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 11 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $305 +$426 +140%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $347 −$340 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $609 −$300 -49%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $304 +$219 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $102 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 26¢ $204 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL K27 100¢ $434 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $204 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $203 4h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 46¢ $203 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 46¢ $203 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ $203 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $454 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $203 16h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 98¢ $354 16h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $203 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 47¢ $197 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $203 17h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $203 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $527 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $199 23h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 49¢ $95 24h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 47¢ $108 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 25h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $454 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $12 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $136 25h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $203 27h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 54¢ $170 29h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $203 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $373 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $197 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $772.34 · official $750.59 · 394 history records