Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:05:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B3 0xb3a7…9b95 sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$643 (+26%) realized +$671 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt +144% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +88% what you keep after slip
Net edge+88%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,972now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$576
other 20% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+121.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +144.4% +121.2% 100% 100% +122.0%
≤30d 5 +144.4% +121.2% 100% 100% +122.0%
≤90d 5 +144.4% +121.2% 100% 100% +122.0%
all 5 +144.4% +121.2% 100% 100% +122.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +121.2% 100% +122.0%
10% ← realistic here +100.0% 100% +100.7%
15% +80.7% 100% +81.3%
20% +63.0% 80% +63.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +145% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +144% · $-wt +145% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,972
Realized+$671
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions28
Markets (closed)5 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 31¢ 32¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 26¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) South Africa 74¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Qatar 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Under 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 36¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Under 21¢ 20¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Under 34¢ 36¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 42¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Uruguay 16¢ 16¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 39¢ 40¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Australia 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 39¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Under 30¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Under 72¢ 70¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 48¢ 46¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$71 +140%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$298 +291%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$142 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $102 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 36¢ $102 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $102 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $102 3h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 71¢ $101 5h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $101 9h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $102 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $102 9h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 74¢ $101 9h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $51 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 25h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 25h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $51 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 39¢ $51 25h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $50 25h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 25h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $51 25h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 48¢ $51 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Iraq 28¢ $51 25h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 16¢ $51 25h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 37¢ $51 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $51 25h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $51 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $51 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,972.08 · official $1,972.08 (match) · 42 history records