Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:03:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B3 0xb3ac…1afd crypto 835 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$578 (-5%) realized −$577 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate88%734W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day47.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$77
14 days−$12
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$21
sports 26% +$35
other 14% +$7
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -7.5% -16.3% 81% 26% -11.9%
≤30d 245 -4.6% -13.6% 85% 20% -10.3%
≤90d 835 -2.2% -11.5% 88% 17% -9.9%
all 835 -2.2% -11.5% 88% 17% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 17% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 8% -18.5%
15% -27.7% 3% -26.4%
20% -34.8% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$577
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses734 / 101
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)835 / 835
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day47.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 835 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 79¢ 78¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 90¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Czechia 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $90 +$7 +8%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 18 $14 $0 +2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $40 +$2 +6%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$2 +21%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $26 +$4 +14%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 +$9 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$7 +34%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $24 +$1 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $64 +$4 +7%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $30 +$1 +5%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 +$16 +42%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +55%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 +$7 +29%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $80 +$12 +14%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $65 +$4 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $12 +$1 +6%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $35 +$1 +4%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 +$4 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $76 +$7 +9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 +$6 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 95¢ $5 1h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Czechia 94¢ $5 2h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Czechia 94¢ $5 10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $5 10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $10 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $2 10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $20 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 10h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Czechia 94¢ $10 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $10 10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $50 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $10 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $20 14h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $30 14h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Colombia 98¢ $14 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $20 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $6 16h
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) BUY Panama 95¢ $5 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $20 17h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $10 17h
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) BUY Panama 94¢ $10 17h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $10 20h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 90¢ $10 20h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $9 20h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $5 20h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $60 20h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 87¢ $15 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.62 · official $137.62 (match) · 3500 history records