Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:53:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3af…cd33 other 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$111 (-0%) realized −$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$18
politics 28% −$12
sports 14% −$81
tech 4% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 86 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 121 -5.5% -14.5% 5% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 2% -9.8%
10% -22.7% 1% -18.5%
15% -30.1% 1% -26.3%
20% -37.0% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage137d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $218 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $208 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $253 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 29 $199 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $211 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $189 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $173 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 17 $232 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $165 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $232 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $184 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $356 −$1 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $18 $0 +1%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $181 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $163 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $160 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $177 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $382 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $641 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $170 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $193 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 29 $195 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $169 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $164 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $335 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $382 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $343 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $388 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $176 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,217 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $171 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $204 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $204 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 17 $191 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $622 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 3d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 4d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $31 5d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $34 8d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $34 13d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $199 28d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $199 30d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $211 30d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $211 31d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $175 32d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $175 32d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 33d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 37d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $173 38d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $173 39d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $201 39d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $201 39d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $227 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 418 history records