Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B3 0xb3b0…8501 crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$38 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%34W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day92.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$3,363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$35
other 36% −$7
sports 1% +$3
world 1% −$14
economics 1% −$2
politics 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +0.8% -8.8% 97% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 35 +0.8% -8.8% 97% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 35 +0.8% -8.8% 97% 0% -8.9%
all 35 +0.8% -8.8% 97% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 0% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6177.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×210020.96 per $1 lost it wins $210020.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3,363
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses34 / 1
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)35 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day92.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $920 $922 +$2 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 82¢ 81¢ $818 $812 −$6 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 79¢ 78¢ $786 $782 −$3 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $621 $620 −$0 (-0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $99 $85 −$14 (-14%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $58 $60 +$2 (+3%)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? No 66¢ 64¢ $46 $45 −$2 (-4%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 21¢ 21¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will Pierre Chanel Tutugoro be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? Yes 29¢ 12¢ $23 $9 −$14 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $242 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $90 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $227 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $68 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $182 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $61 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $68 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $109 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $68 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $41 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $44 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $68 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $136 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $298 +$3 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $51 $0 +1%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $116 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $182 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $303 +$3 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $83 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $182 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $22 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $630 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $227 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $136 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $136 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $227 +$2 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $227 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $757 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $227 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $272 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $189 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $921 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $242 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $44 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $110 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $90 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 9m
Will Pierre Chanel Tutugoro be the next President of the Government of BUY Yes 29¢ $23 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $137 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $56 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $61 19m
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $41 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $68 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $109 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,362.65 · official $3,362.68 (match) · 126 history records