Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:20:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3b3…1404 crypto 1236 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,291 (-73%) realized −$11,291 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%701W / 535L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day48.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$707
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -19.2% -26.9% 47% 47% -31.7%
≤30d 937 -6.1% -15.0% 60% 60% -14.3%
≤90d 1236 -5.6% -14.6% 57% 55% -13.7%
all 1236 -5.6% -14.6% 57% 55% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 55% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 54% -21.9%
15% -30.3% 38% -29.5%
20% -37.1% 26% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,291
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses701 / 535
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1236 / 1236
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day48.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1236 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$6 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $9 +$3 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$16 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$15 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$5 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$6 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$24 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $42 +$18 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$6 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$5 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$5 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $7 +$4 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $34 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $8 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $9 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $15 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $12 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $9 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $15 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $9 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $9 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $13 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records