Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:59:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B3 0xb3b5…6072 crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$225 (+14%) realized +$225 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate58%25W / 18L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$89
other 12% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +6.4% -3.8% 58% 44% -3.8%
≤30d 43 +6.4% -3.8% 58% 44% -3.8%
≤90d 43 +6.4% -3.8% 58% 44% -3.8%
all 43 +6.4% -3.8% 58% 44% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 44% -3.8%
10% -13.0% 30% -13.0%
15% -21.4% 23% -21.4%
20% -29.1% 19% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses25 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage6d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$9 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$9 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $27 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$12 +45%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$10 -48%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$5 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$21 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $84 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $117 −$38 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $124 −$7 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $210 +$8 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $208 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$9 +18%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$16 +61%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $83 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$18 +67%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -17%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $61 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $14 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $38 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 4d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 4d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $26 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $64 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $26 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records