Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:18:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B3 0xb3b6…0d2b weather 657 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,110 (+1%) realized +$1,105 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate92%605W / 50L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day78.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days−$2
14 days−$53
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$576
crypto 13% +$371
tech 2% +$42
other 1% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +0.4% -9.2% 91% 1% -9.5%
≤30d 400 -0.0% -9.6% 90% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 655 +0.4% -9.2% 92% 2% -9.6%
all 655 +0.4% -9.2% 92% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 2% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$72 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$1,105
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses605 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)655 / 657
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$190
Trades / day78.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 655 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 28? No 95¢ 100¢ $99 $104 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 28? No 95¢ 98¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 28? Jun 28 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 28? Jun 28 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 28 $140 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 27? Jun 27 $69 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $142 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 27 $187 −$38 -20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 27 $174 −$24 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? Jun 27 $366 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 27 $151 +$14 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 27 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 26? Jun 26 $238 +$12 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 26? Jun 26 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 26? Jun 26 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? Jun 26 $629 +$12 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,001 +$19 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 26? Jun 26 $970 +$29 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 26? Jun 26 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 25? Jun 25 $150 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 25? Jun 25 $2 $0 -22%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? Jun 25 $972 +$27 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 25? Jun 25 $951 +$48 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on June Jun 25 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? Jun 25 $265 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $980 +$19 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $141 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $138 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 25? Jun 25 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 25 $139 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $109 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $77 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $32 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $82 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $135 +$15 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 25 $138 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 24? Jun 25 $213 −$80 -38%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on June 24? Jun 25 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 24? Jun 25 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $143 −$143 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24? Jun 24 $100 +$9 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $12 1m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $80 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $150 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $150 6h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $19 8h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $143 9h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $19 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $48 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $5 12h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $18 12h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 93¢ $18 12h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 93¢ $63 12h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $150 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $44 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $50 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $33 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $15 16h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $48 18h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $92 18h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $50 18h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 93¢ $5 18h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 93¢ $13 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $65 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.60 · official $116.72 (match) · 3500 history records