Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B3 0xb3b9…29ab sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$1,112 (+39%) realized +$1,183 · open −$71

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +115% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +79% what you keep after slip

Net edge+79%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown53%max

Avg bet$259per market

Trades / day14.0pace

Fees−$21est.

Kalshi-fit64%portable

Net worth$730now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+94.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+114.7%	+94.3%	50%	50%	+24.0%
≤30d	6	+114.7%	+94.3%	50%	50%	+24.0%
≤90d	6	+114.7%	+94.3%	50%	50%	+24.0%
all	6	+114.7%	+94.3%	50%	50%	+24.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+94.3%	50%	+24.0%
10%	+75.7%	50%	+12.1%
15%	+58.7%	50%	+1.3%
20%	+43.1%	50%	-8.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 94% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +115% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$481 vs −$255 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$730

Realized+$1,183

Unrealized−$71

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$21

Open positions3

Markets (closed)6 / 11

History coverage1d

Avg bet$259

Trades / day14.0

Drawdown53%

Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Yes	56¢	42¢	$400	$304	−$96 (-24%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Morocco	82¢	86¢	$251	$265	+$14 (+5%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	32¢	34¢	$150	$162	+$12 (+8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 29	$203	−$134	-66%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 29	$82	−$80	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$554	−$550	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$811	+$644	+79%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan?	Jun 29	$90	+$710	+785%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 29	$101	+$91	+90%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	82¢	$1	1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$153	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	82¢	$251	1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	56¢	$255	1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	56¢	$150	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	SELL No	19¢	$69	3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	54¢	$203	5h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	15¢	$82	5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$554	5h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	11¢	$90	8h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	55¢	$811	8h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will B	BUY	19¢	$99	14h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherla	BUY	10¢	$100	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $730.02 · official $734.15 (match) · 17 history records