Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3ba…f84e sports 609 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,460 (+0%) realized +$1,460 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%600W / 9L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$929per market
Trades / day41.2pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$463
14 days+$907
30 days+$1,455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$1,409
other 9% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 357 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 609 -0.7% -10.2% 99% 0% -9.3%
all 609 -0.7% -10.2% 99% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -26.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×34.06 per $1 lost it wins $34.06
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,460
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses600 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)609 / 609
History coverage56d
Avg bet$929
Trades / day41.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 609 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $500 $0 +0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $500 $0 +0%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $998 +$2 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $9,990 +$10 +0%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 17 $2,801 +$3 +0%
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 17 $5,584 +$6 +0%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 17 $56 $0 +0%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 17 $500 $0 +0%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $1,604 +$2 +0%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $499 +$1 +0%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,498 +$2 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $500 $0 +0%
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Jun 16 $80 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,005 +$1 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,321 +$1 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,005 +$1 +0%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $9,900 +$100 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,002 +$1 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8,767 +$9 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $495 +$5 +1%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $499 +$1 +0%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $499 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,163 +$1 +0%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $873 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,998 +$2 +0%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $5,994 +$6 +0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4,995 +$5 +0%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $1,361 +$1 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 100¢ $500 35m
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 100¢ $25 40m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 100¢ $500 54m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $2,498 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $2,498 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $2,498 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $2,498 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 100¢ $499 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 100¢ $499 1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 100¢ $10 6h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 100¢ $95 6h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 100¢ $134 7h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 100¢ $244 7h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 100¢ $6 7h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 100¢ $38 7h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 100¢ $11 7h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 100¢ $408 7h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 100¢ $216 7h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 100¢ $1,574 7h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 100¢ $64 7h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 100¢ $15 7h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 100¢ $5 7h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 100¢ $2 8h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 100¢ $522 8h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 100¢ $2,498 8h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 100¢ $1,976 8h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 100¢ $82 8h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 100¢ $245 8h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 100¢ $94 8h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 100¢ $100 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2926 history records