Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3bc…2f60 sports 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,594 (-3%) realized −$1,594 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%63W / 81L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$341est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,643
7 days+$2,092
14 days+$2,092
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$312
other 9% −$1,680
world 1% +$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +1.8% -7.9% 41% 41% +10.8%
≤30d 34 -12.3% -20.6% 35% 35% -8.2%
≤90d 109 -25.4% -32.5% 31% 31% -30.8%
all 144 -1.1% -10.5% 44% 42% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 42% -13.0%
10% -19.1% 42% -21.3%
15% -26.9% 39% -28.9%
20% -34.1% 35% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$347 vs −$292 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,594
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses63 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$341
Open positions0
Markets (closed)144 / 144
History coverage139d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 144 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $390 −$390 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $350 −$350 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $345 −$345 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $192 −$192 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $562 −$562 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $532 −$532 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $540 +$460 +85%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $460 +$540 +117%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $574 +$526 +92%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $430 +$570 +133%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $320 +$1,680 +525%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $95 −$95 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $576 +$408 +71%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $320 +$680 +212%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $270 −$270 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $418 +$551 +132%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $294 −$288 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $390 +$360 +92%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $580 +$520 +90%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $250 +$250 +100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $299 −$299 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $289 −$285 -99%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $598 −$592 -99%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $540 −$540 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $203 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $270 +$361 +134%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $377 −$370 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $301 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 20 $212 +$188 +89%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $121 −$119 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner May 18 $136 +$114 +84%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 18 $170 +$80 +47%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 17 $517 +$583 +113%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $270 +$230 +85%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $122 −$121 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $328 −$324 -99%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 16 $146 −$142 -98%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 16 $92 −$90 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 15 $305 +$341 +112%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $161 −$158 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 15 $412 −$412 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner May 11 $74 −$72 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $38 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $188 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $65 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $77 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $40 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $68 23h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $375 26h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $95 26h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $5 26h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $8 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 708 history records