Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B3 0xb3bc…ce66 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$223 (+12%) realized +$207 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$189
sports 11% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.7% -22.8% 62% 62% +18.7%
≤30d 8 -14.7% -22.8% 62% 62% +18.7%
≤90d 8 -14.7% -22.8% 62% 62% +18.7%
all 8 -14.7% -22.8% 62% 62% +18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 62% +18.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 25% +7.3%
15% -37.0% 25% -3.0%
20% -43.1% 25% -12.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$45 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized+$207
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 75¢ 90¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $67 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $109 −$98 -90%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$34 +17%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $201 +$43 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $329 +$171 +52%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $140 −$11 -8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $137 +$30 +22%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 −$26 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $97 53m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $68 54m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $45 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 7h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 100¢ $244 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $99 22h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 82¢ $201 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $201 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $500 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $206 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $123 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $122 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $140 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $27 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 89¢ $27 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $137 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $527.21 · official $527.21 (match) · 26 history records