Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3bf…f91b world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$2
world 27% +$4
sports 11% −$11
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 25 +0.4% -9.2% 36% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 34 +9.5% -1.0% 32% 3% -9.5%
all 35 +6.3% -3.8% 31% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 3% -9.9%
10% -13.0% 3% -18.5%
15% -21.4% 3% -26.4%
20% -29.1% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage485d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $24 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $93 +$3 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $38 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $78 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $23 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $10 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $35 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $35 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $396 −$1 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $17 −$1 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $8 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $47 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $265 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $255 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $540 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $7 $0 +0%
Phoenix Biel vs. Iron Brit Mar 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $29 28h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $12 28h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $40 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $24 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $17 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $38 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $38 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $11 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $11 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.54 · official $40.42 (match) · 134 history records