Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B3 0xb3c1…1ef7 sports 9 markets active 3d ago coverage 737d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$80,391 (+130%) realized +$80,391 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$6,886per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$344est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,141
14 days+$1,141
30 days+$1,022
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$57,598
sports 29% +$23,208
crypto 5% −$119
economics 1% −$584
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +141.6% +118.6% 50% 50% -1.5%
≤30d 3 +93.1% +74.7% 33% 33% -3.7%
≤90d 5 +123.8% +102.5% 40% 40% +28.9%
all 9 +60.3% +45.1% 33% 33% +108.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +45.1% 33% +108.1%
10% ← realistic here +31.2% 33% +88.2%
15% +18.5% 33% +70.0%
20% +6.9% 33% +53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +130% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33,568 vs −$3,433 · ×9.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.89 per $1 lost it wins $4.89
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

737d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$80,391
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$344
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage737d
Avg bet$6,886
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10,228 −$10,000 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2,907 +$11,141 +383%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $3,026 −$119 -4%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $4,996 +$21,964 +440%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 10 $10,045 −$9,897 -98%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $30,188 +$67,598 +224%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2024 meeting? Dec 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2024 meeting? Dec 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2024 meeting? Dec 20 $489 −$489 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10,228 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $14,048 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $16 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $2,891 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2,907 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $21 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2,143 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $545 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $104 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $104 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $104 19d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $26,960 42d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 18¢ $28 44d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 18¢ $4,968 44d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 51¢ $5,045 71d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 51¢ $5,000 71d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 30¢ $8,996 115d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,000 115d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,072 115d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,000 115d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,000 115d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 31¢ $5,000 115d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,000 115d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,000 115d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 115d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 115d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 115d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 31¢ $10,000 115d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2024 meeting? BUY Yes $45 737d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records