Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B3 0xb3c1…4837 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$208 (+2%) realized +$272 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$1,836now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,001
7 days+$1,126
14 days+$151
30 days+$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$504
sports 3% +$695
crypto 1% −$100
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +24.2% +12.4% 60% 60% +4.0%
≤30d 30 -7.3% -16.1% 47% 47% -8.0%
≤90d 30 -7.3% -16.1% 47% 47% -8.0%
all 30 -7.3% -16.1% 47% 47% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 47% -8.0%
10% -24.1% 43% -16.8%
15% -31.4% 40% -24.9%
20% -38.2% 20% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -41% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$319 vs −$270 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,836
Realized+$272
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)30 / 35
History coverage10d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $700 $652 −$48 (-7%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $511 +$1,489 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $401 +$48 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$137 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$327 +65%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $308 −$300 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $303 +$114 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $549 +$739 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $807 +$335 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $916 −$900 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$76 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$88 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$46 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $439 −$430 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,033 −$1,030 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $205 +$795 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $162 +$91 +56%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$84 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 54m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $509 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $303 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $511 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $401 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $308 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $503 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 15¢ $513 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $509 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $403 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $130 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,836.16 · official $1,836.16 (match) · 66 history records