Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:18:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3c5…2e15 world 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$2
other 17% −$1
economics 2% $0
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.1% -14.1% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 40% 0% -9.5%
all 26 -1.0% -10.4% 58% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage466d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -24%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $50 +$3 +7%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $59 −$2 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $44 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $43 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $153 −$1 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $4 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $82 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $49 +$2 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $91 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $4 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $52 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 18 $15 $0 +2%
Will Mercedes have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Toxic Town: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this Mar 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 15 $1 $0 -27%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 15 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $9 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $39 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $5 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $2 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $40 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $11 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $50 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $35 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $35 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $38 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $43 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $43 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $9 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $29 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $37 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 21d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $2 21d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 21d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.30 · official $47.30 (match) · 93 history records