Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B3 0xb3c5…f095 sports 1303 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$631 (-2%) realized −$637 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate63%822W / 476L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day43.1pace
Fees−$228est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$625
7 days−$578
14 days−$83
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$449
crypto 17% −$380
other 7% +$4
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -11.6% -20.0% 56% 49% -21.5%
≤30d 448 -1.2% -10.6% 64% 61% -9.5%
≤90d 1298 -4.4% -13.5% 63% 57% -12.1%
all 1298 -4.4% -13.5% 63% 57% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 57% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 47% -20.5%
15% -29.3% 34% -28.2%
20% -36.3% 24% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$637
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses822 / 476
Est. fees paid−$228
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1298 / 1303
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day43.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 90¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 55¢ 100¢ $9 $16 +$7 (+83%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $17 +$4 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$29 +48%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $40 +$5 +13%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $47 $0 +1%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 16 $95 +$15 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $111 −$111 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $198 −$198 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $31 +$4 +14%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $95 +$11 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $233 −$233 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $81 −$76 -94%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $122 +$87 +71%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $100 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $76 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$12 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $40 +$9 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $76 +$45 +59%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 +$8 +16%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$8 +16%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$17 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$13 +129%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $40 +$22 +55%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $40 +$25 +63%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 84¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 55¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 66¢ $15 3h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 53¢ $15 4h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $50 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $40 4h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 99¢ $100 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $17 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 61¢ $18 18h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $100 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $47 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 24h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 73¢ $21 24h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 83¢ $35 27h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $40 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 28h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 38¢ $5 29h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea SELL Carstensz 100¢ $111 29h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Carstensz 86¢ $12 31h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Carstensz 86¢ $30 31h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Carstensz 86¢ $42 31h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Carstensz 86¢ $12 31h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 87¢ $15 33h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $31 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $31 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $95 42h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 52¢ $95 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $198 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $111 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.50 · official $135.50 (match) · 3500 history records