Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B3 0xb3cc…7145 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$472 (+18%) realized +$516 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$249
sports 48% +$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +23.9% +12.1% 86% 71% +6.9%
≤30d 7 +23.9% +12.1% 86% 71% +6.9%
≤90d 7 +23.9% +12.1% 86% 71% +6.9%
all 7 +23.9% +12.1% 86% 71% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.1% 71% +6.9%
10% +1.4% 29% -3.4%
15% -8.4% 14% -12.7%
20% -17.4% 14% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$1 · ×61.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×367.07 per $1 lost it wins $367.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$516
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 81¢ 60¢ $21 $16 −$5 (-25%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 92¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $79 −$1 -2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $37 +$3 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,207 +$275 +23%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,187 +$170 +14%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $22 +$3 +16%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$11 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $21 30m
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 92¢ $39 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $38 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $39 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $39 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $40 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $37 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,207 21h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,357 21h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1,162 43h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $25 2d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY No 85¢ $22 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $11 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.67 · official $15.93 (match) · 19 history records