Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:41:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B3 0xb3cf…6207 sports 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,861 (+7%) realized +$3,317 · open −$456
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate47%29W / 33L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$609per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,098now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$1,975
14 days+$2,366
30 days+$2,366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$194
sports 40% +$2,382
crypto 9% +$13
politics 1% −$6
world 0% −$12
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -33.6% -39.9% 31% 25% -1.5%
≤30d 40 -28.8% -35.6% 32% 25% -2.5%
≤90d 41 -28.0% -34.8% 34% 24% -2.5%
all 62 -2.1% -11.4% 47% 31% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 31% -3.1%
10% -19.9% 26% -12.4%
15% -27.6% 26% -20.9%
20% -34.7% 24% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$27 · ×4.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.1 per $1 lost it wins $4.1
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$1,098
Realized+$3,317
Unrealized−$456
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses29 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 65
History coverage366d
Avg bet$609
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 71¢ 93¢ $599 $785 +$186 (+31%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $525 $312 −$212 (-40%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ $430 $0 −$430 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $561 +$16 +3%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $609 +$641 +105%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $608 +$503 +83%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $21 −$3 -14%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Hertha BSC win on 2025-12-19? Jun 16 $18 −$10 -54%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
No airdrop in 2025? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 243.5 Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Pacers: O/U 239.5 Jun 16 $200 −$104 -52%
Will Bayern Munich win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
76ers vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 16 $174 −$67 -38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 16 $348 +$66 +19%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 24? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Jun 16 $578 −$94 -16%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $298 +$452 +152%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $202 +$22 +11%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $500 +$500 +100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $130 +$252 +194%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,055 −$129 -12%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $657 +$343 +52%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14,314 −$14 -0%
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Jun 13 $1,890 +$7 +0%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 13 $6,609 −$10 -0%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,002 +$73 +7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $579 +$330 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $38 −$2 -6%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 31 $800 +$46 +6%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $100 +$50 +50%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 07 $21 −$1 -6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Mar 07 $22 −$1 -6%
Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 05 $48 +$3 +6%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Feb 21 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 09 $1 +$4 +432%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Jan 31 $3,235 −$9 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 30 $1,808 +$26 +1%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 28 $429 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $437 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $104 41h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 42h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $1 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $1 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $0 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,097.74 · official $1,097.74 (match) · 332 history records