Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3d2…7dc4 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$2
other 19% −$1
politics 12% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.4% -11.7% 10% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 13 -1.7% -11.1% 15% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -1.7% -11.1% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 34 -1.8% -11.2% 24% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage324d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $16 −$1 -9%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 -15%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $43 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $36 +$2 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $2 −$1 -23%
Trump x Epstein files made public by July 31? Aug 10 $8 $0 +2%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 06 $27 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference? Jul 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 29 $6 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 28 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $4 $0 -7%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 28 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $40 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $37 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $41 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $42 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $17 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $20 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $15 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $24 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $40 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $5 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $33 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records