Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3d3…56d2 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate54%26W / 22L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$10
other 33% +$3
sports 11% $0
politics 7% −$2
crypto 4% −$1
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 10 +1.8% -7.9% 80% 0% -7.0%
≤90d 10 +1.8% -7.9% 80% 0% -7.0%
all 48 -6.7% -15.6% 54% 2% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 2% -8.4%
10% -23.6% 0% -17.2%
15% -31.0% 0% -25.2%
20% -37.8% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses26 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage473d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $50 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $39 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $78 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $61 +$6 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $85 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $38 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $8 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Dec 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $15 $0 -1%
Will the National Party of Suriname win the most seats in the 2025 Sur Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 28 $1 −$1 -40%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 28 $11 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 27 $13 $0 +2%
Will 'The Apothecary Diaries' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $130 in May? May 24 $9 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 17 $2 $0 -11%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 16 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 15 $1 $0 -7%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 14 $10 $0 -3%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Los Angeles Rams? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 09 $4 $0 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 08 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 08 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 21 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on March 19? Mar 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Mar 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $51 46m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $50 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $3 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 15h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $3 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $4 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $3 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $23 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $10 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $28 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $8 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $0 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $0 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $44 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $2 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $18 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $26 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $21 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 215 history records