Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:21:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B3 0xb3d4…4619 crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$142 (-28%) realized −$158 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 131d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$85
sports 30% $0
crypto 13% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 14 -32.4% -38.9% 29% 29% -88.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 29% -88.2%
10% -44.7% 29% -89.3%
15% -50.1% 29% -90.4%
20% -55.0% 29% -91.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$16 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 21
History coverage131d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $175 $191 +$16 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $99 −$96 -97%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 17 $1 +$2 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Feb 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Feb 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 17 $1 +$1 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Feb 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Feb 17 $5 +$7 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 17 $2 +$2 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $179 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? AN BUY 2¢ $10 1h
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Will BUY 3¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score AND Will Morocco win on 2026 BUY 2¢ $18 1h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score AND Will Bosnia and Herz BUY 3¢ $10 2h
Belgium vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND South Africa vs. Canada: BUY 3¢ $15 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan BUY 9¢ $100 19h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $99 44h
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $3 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $6 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $6 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.19 · official $252.34 · 28 history records