Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3d6…6fee crypto 342 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$171 (-10%) realized −$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%148W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$90
14 days−$90
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 255 -9.1% -17.8% 46% 46% -15.3%
≤30d 255 -9.1% -17.8% 46% 46% -15.3%
≤90d 255 -9.1% -17.8% 46% 46% -15.3%
all 342 -13.4% -21.7% 43% 42% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 42% -18.7%
10% -29.2% 41% -26.5%
15% -36.0% 39% -33.6%
20% -42.3% 38% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses148 / 194
Open positions0
Markets (closed)342 / 342
History coverage120d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 342 Trades
no open positions (172 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$7 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$25 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $13 +$13 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 694 history records